Wednesday circled for Bitcoin ETF decision. What happens next?

All signs point to a bitcoin ETF approval this week.

A number of would-be issues published expense ratios, with Blackrock (which is obviously going to win) flagging 0.3% with a discount to 0.2% until an AUM number is it.

Kate Rooney on CNBC just now said “its looking like Wednesday for now for a bitcoin ETF decision” which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention.

So what happens?

Seven years ago (back when Bitcoin was at $2500), I made a bull case for why bitcoin could rise 10x and the final catalyst I cited was a bitcoin ETF. It certainly look much longer than I anticipated and the market — in all its majesty — found many other ways to buy bitcoin along the way.

So while a bitcoin ETF would have been a huge catalyst back in 2017, it’s not anymore. This run to $45,000 from $30,000 based on an ETF is flimsy. Bitcoin trading volumes have been steadily falling and that reflects flagging interest, something that’s unlikely to be revived by an ETF.

I maintain this week be a sell-the-fact response, though I’m not sure if it will come:

  1. On the announcement
  2. On the launch of trading
  3. At the end of the first day of trading

Between now and then we could be see a flurry of buying and I think a pop above $50K would be a gift to shorts. Hardening that belief has been the lack of upside in the past week despite abundant evidence of looming approval. Meanwhile, prices were smacked down 6% by this laughable report.

Of course, it’s bitcoin so anything is possible and the dovish turn from the Fed certainly won’t hurt.

Bitcoin daily chart